On the heels of last week's NBC News/Marist polls that underpolled Republicans and made it look as though the president was ahead when he really wasn't, today's NBC polls got it pretty much exactly right. That's good news for Obama in Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa.
In Nevada, Obama leads Romney by 48%-46%. The actual voter breakdown is D=42 R=37 I=21. NBC's poll was D=40 R=38 I=21. There was a slight underpolling of Democrats, but that's only better news for Obama.
In Colorado, Obama leads Romney 46%-45%. The actual voter breakdown is D=33 R=35 I=32. NBC's poll was D=31 R=35 I=34. Almost exactly correct. Nice job NBC
In Iowa, Obama and Romney are tied at 44%. The actual voter breakdown is D=34 R=31 I=35. NBC's poll was D=34 R=35 I=31. There was a slight overpolling of Republicans, but otherwise the results seem solid.
There has been a great deal of talk about the polling in the presidential election, but 5+ months out, much of the results are not predictive of what will probably happen in November. Yes, Obama is stuck nationally at around 47%, but his approval numbers are close to 50% and he's leading in most of the states that he needs to win to be reelected. Romney is polling close to the president in the states above and is ahead in Ohio according to a Rasmussen poll out on Thursday.
My sense is that the unemployment numbers for May, out on Friday, will do a great deal to shape the race before the summer. Remember that the June numbers will be released during the July 4 holiday week and July's numbers come out in August when the Olympics will steal the show and, well, it'll be August.
June could also be a make or break month for other reasons, including the Wisconsin recall race, and two Supreme Court decisions on health care and immigration. Right now Obama is still the favorite, but that could change quickly depending on these external events.
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Thursday, May 31, 2012
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Your Lyin' Eyes: Why the NBC Marist Poll is Not Good News for the President
Once again, a prestigious polling organization publishes a presidential election poll with provocative top-line numbers, but once again, it's the poll's internal numbers that provide the real news. On Tuesday, it was the Quinnipiac poll showing Mitt Romney with a 6 point lead in Florida that was misleading because it underpolled Democrats. Today, it's the NBC News Marist poll of battleground states showing Obama with a lead. Why are those results suspect? Let's take a look.
In Ohio, according to the poll, Obama has a 48%-42% lead over Romney and NBC reports a
D=37 R=28 I=34 voter identification breakdown.
The problem is that the actual Ohio breakdown is
D=36 R=37 I=27.
Republicans were underpolled by 9%. There's Obama's margin in the poll.
The same is true for Florida. The poll results show Obama leading Romney 48%-44%, with a party breakdown of:
D=43 R=35 I=21
The actual party breakdown in Florida is:
D=36 R=40 I=24
Again, NBC News oversampled Democrats by 7% and undersampled Republicans by 5%. That's why Obama is leading. And even with that much discrepancy, he's only leading by 4%. Not good.
Virginia likewise provides little reassuring news for the president. The poll's party breakdown was:
D=39 R=29 I=39
And the actual party registration in Virginia is:
D=36 R=39 I=25
Again, Republicans were undersampled to the tune of 10%. So with a 48%-44% lead, that undersampling is Obama's margin.
All three of these states are close and will remain so throughout the campaign. It would be nice if the pollsters were giving us more accurate information.
Please join the conversation at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
In Ohio, according to the poll, Obama has a 48%-42% lead over Romney and NBC reports a
D=37 R=28 I=34 voter identification breakdown.
The problem is that the actual Ohio breakdown is
D=36 R=37 I=27.
Republicans were underpolled by 9%. There's Obama's margin in the poll.
The same is true for Florida. The poll results show Obama leading Romney 48%-44%, with a party breakdown of:
D=43 R=35 I=21
The actual party breakdown in Florida is:
D=36 R=40 I=24
Again, NBC News oversampled Democrats by 7% and undersampled Republicans by 5%. That's why Obama is leading. And even with that much discrepancy, he's only leading by 4%. Not good.
Virginia likewise provides little reassuring news for the president. The poll's party breakdown was:
D=39 R=29 I=39
And the actual party registration in Virginia is:
D=36 R=39 I=25
Again, Republicans were undersampled to the tune of 10%. So with a 48%-44% lead, that undersampling is Obama's margin.
All three of these states are close and will remain so throughout the campaign. It would be nice if the pollsters were giving us more accurate information.
Please join the conversation at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
The Truth Behind the Florida Poll
The headline number was Romney 47% Obama 41% in the Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters released today. It's too bad that the media can't read a poll effectively or analyze its results.
The search for the relevant numbers requires that you scroll all the way to the bottom of the poll and click on the Demographic Summary link. A Word document will open (and open your mind) and reveal that the pollsters seriously oversampled Independents, and undersampled Democrats. From the survey:
First of all, I love the "or what" part of the question. Can't Quinnipiac come up with other language, such as "or other political party?"
Second, the actual voter registration split in Florida is:
R=36%
D=40%
I=24%
As you can see, Democrats were underpolled to the tune of 9%. True, Republicans were also undersampled, but relative to their actual numbers, not by much. If anything, the oversampling of Independents should be of some concern for Obama, since they are probably the difference in the poll.
Usually Quinnipiac is a solid pollster, but on this one they missed the boat.
Please join the conversation at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
The search for the relevant numbers requires that you scroll all the way to the bottom of the poll and click on the Demographic Summary link. A Word document will open (and open your mind) and reveal that the pollsters seriously oversampled Independents, and undersampled Democrats. From the survey:
PARTY IDENTIFICATION - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?PARTY IDENTIFICATIONRepublican 34% 640Democrat 31 493Independent 29 507Other/DK/NA 6 82
First of all, I love the "or what" part of the question. Can't Quinnipiac come up with other language, such as "or other political party?"
Second, the actual voter registration split in Florida is:
R=36%
D=40%
I=24%
As you can see, Democrats were underpolled to the tune of 9%. True, Republicans were also undersampled, but relative to their actual numbers, not by much. If anything, the oversampling of Independents should be of some concern for Obama, since they are probably the difference in the poll.
Usually Quinnipiac is a solid pollster, but on this one they missed the boat.
Please join the conversation at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
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